Dan's 2025 trend guide

In

Calvados

Calvados is an apple brandy from Normandy. I may have been living under a rock because it's been around since 1553, but I hadn't heard of it or tasted it until visiting Normandy for the first time this year. I fell in love with Normandy, thus falling in love with their spirit of choice. There's an array of interesting cocktails to make with it and it's better to sip on straight than whiskey.

It has the taste, the history, the appeal, and a cool sounding name that rivals "Aperol" to make a name for itself in the United States. I may not have 1M+ followers, be an artist, or celebrity but I've been telling every friend, bartender, and liquor store that will listen to me about Calvados. If this becomes a trend in 2025, I will be taking some major credit and buying apple orchards in Normandy.

Screen time

Most people will be spending more time in front of their screens in 2025. I don't think we've reached peak screen time yet. AI will just make things more addictive, engaging, and people will be glued to their phones, laptops, TVs, etc... more. I'll be posting my thesis about how AI changes consumer behavior, but the easy answer is any time saved by the efficiencies of AI, will lead to additional leisure screen time that's enhanced by AI.

Additionally, TikTok isn't going to banned in the U.S. and if it is there's going to be 50+ companies/startups fighting for their audience with apps that could be even more addicting.

I personally would love to stay out of trend on this one.

Michelin Keys

In 2024, Michelin awarded their first set of "keys" to hotels for outstanding stays. In a world of social media influencers, Michelin still pulls their weight as the original trendsetter. There's been some recent pushback on their restaurant rankings, but it still remain the highest honor. The same will be for hotels.

Hotels are a bit different than restaurants because many of the hotels on the list are already attached to brands that have built their reputation in hospitality. Cheval Blanc, Four Seasons, Aman, among others. I've found the most interesting hotels on the list are the one key and two keys recipients, names you may not be familiar with that are owned by smaller operators or independents.

I also imagine hotels in proximity to the those on the lists will receive a boost as potential visitors check rates of keyed hotels, see they're too expensive or booked, and look at other options in the area.

Out

Paid newsletters

I went crazy on paid newsletters in 2024 and have since pared back my paid subscriptions substantially. The majority are interesting, but I haven't found lasting value out of them each month. I don't blame them, it's hard to create great content and I'm sure they feel pressure to produce every month.

Paid newsletters compete with free content on social media, legacy publications, and I don't think advertising is the best way to monetize niche audiences even if there's perfect overlap.

Can we bundle paid newsletters? Can I pay Substack a flat fee to get access to five newsletters and creators trade lower revenue for higher retention? Are the largest paid newsletters growing out of Substack yet?

ChatGPT

Eh, just putting this on here to be controversial, go viral, get 1M+ followers, and boost my Calvados stock.

It's really not out, I just don't use it much. I use Perplexity more frequently. Perplexity is OK, but most of their cited sources I wouldn't consider reputable, or it's just like the first page of Google. Perplexity shop has yet to give me something I'd actually buy. I haven't tried ChatGPT search yet.

Forerunner is super into vertical search, basically getting the best results and knowledge for a specific domain. It's probably the only way to get non-mediocre results, but I don't want to use 10 different tools based on my topic. I've found Perplexity is pretty cool going through SEC filings, but there's vertical specific tools for that too like Brightwave.

Perhaps this going to be similar to paid newsletters? I'm going to have to pay for 10 different search tools? We'll see if more vertical specific agents become popular in 2025.

Birkenstock

I don't know if it's worse to bet against ChatGPT or Birkenstocks. People refuse to take them off, but they should. Despite the sandal's clunkiness, they're trading higher than their IPO and shaking off some early lackluster performance. It looks like they've expanded to regular shoes, but I don't know how that will be adapted by sandal goers.

I'm just bitter that it's cold here in NYC and there are people in warm climates running around in sandals. The sandals do last forever making it an incredible product, but at the end of the day, the only place a sandal is appropriate is the beach.